Time of Reckoning — Reviewing My 2024 Cybersecurity Predictions

The brutal reality is that cybersecurity predictions are only as valuable as their accuracy. As 2024 comes to a close, I revisit my forecasts to assess their utility in guiding meaningful decisions.

Anyone can make predictions (and far too many do), but actually being correct is another matter altogether.

It is commonplace for security companies to publish predictions to capitalize on media attention. Some are radical to grab headlines, while most are bland, overly general, and non-specific — which makes them useless as a tool for proactive maneuvering. Few stand the test of time.

Predictions that cybercrime will be painful and AI will create problems are mind-numbing to read and offer little practical guidance for professionals. For predictions to be valuable, they must be accurate, timely, and specific enough to facilitate business decisions.

Avoiding Scrutiny

Almost every company that publishes predictions avoids revisiting them at the end of the year, mostly because it becomes apparent that they were just a thinly veiled marketing exercise, and either…