The Ugly Path to Avoid a War in Ukraine

Russian tanks may invade Ukraine before the ink is dry on this article, as part of maneuvers to undermine the independence of Ukraine. International negotiations are underway but nobody believes they will be effective. Everyone is fearful that a shooting war in Ukraine may escalate to war between nuclear superpowers. As an armchair strategist, I only see one narrow and rocky path that could avoid the unnecessary bloodshed and suffering while preserving the ability of Ukraine to determine its own future and prosperity.

I believe Russia, under the deliberate hands of Putin, is following a specific plan of action concerning Ukraine. That plan will be executed, regardless of almost anything that the West may do or say. The political negotiations and rhetoric we are seeing unfold is pure theatre, for political purposes, and likely to give the necessary time for Russian military forces to maximize their preparedness and positions.

Whatever master plan Putin crafted for his forces a year ago or more, will likely come to fruition. The final outcome is unknown.

Over the past several months, Russia has amassed a massive combined military force along Ukraine’s lengthy border with Russia and Belarus. Belarus has stated they will assist Russia in any action against Ukraine. The West raised alarms of this build-up some time ago but was…